By Ivan Moore

Alaska Survey Research

This survey was conducted in December 2019 with a random sample of 763 Alaska adults aged{/span} {span}{span}18+. Results were weighted to provide for an exactly representative distribution by Alaska borough/census area, as well as by respondent age, gender, ethnicity and party affiliation. The margin of error for these results is +3.8% at 95% confidence. {/span}{/span}

{p dir=”ltr”}{span}Senator Lisa Murkowski has a statewide positive-negative rating of 51% — 35%. Senator Dan{/span} {span}{span}Sullivan has a positive-negative rating of 47% — 38%. How these ratings interact with Alaskan’s opinions on impeachment are very different. {/span}{/span}

{p dir=”ltr”}{span}Overall, Alaskans oppose the impeachment and removal of President Trump by a margin of 51%{/span} {span}{span}to 46%. But for both Sullivan and Murkowski, acquitting the president comes with a net less likely to vote for them at their next reelection, Murkowski 35% — 48% more likely-less likely, Sullivan 38% — 48%. {/span}{/span}

{p dir=”ltr”}{span}BUT, each Senator is primarily interested in the opinions of their base, i.e. those who have{/span} {span}{span}positive opinions of them... and there we see starkly different results. {/span}{/span}

{p dir=”ltr”}{span}Looking first at Senator Sullivan’s positive, we see his supporters are over 50% Republican, and{/span} {span}{span}show a ratio of 2:1 more likely to vote for him if he acquits the President. On the impeachment itself, over 80% of Sullivan’s positive oppose impeachment and removal of the President. {/span}{/span}

{p dir=”ltr”}{span}Senator Murkowski’s base is very different. They are equally balanced between Republicans{/span} {span}{span}and Democrats, they favor impeachment and removal of the President by over 20 points, 58% — 37%, and have a more likely-less likely to reelect of 32% — 50%. {/span}{/span}

{p dir=”ltr”}{span}BOTTOM LINE: Sullivan’s decision in the Senate trial is easy. Murkowski’s not so much. {/span}

{p dir=”ltr”}{span}Any questions about this survey result can be directed to Ivan Moore at{/span} {span}{span}ivan@alaskasurveyresearch.com {/span}{/span}

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