Most of the financial reports for the U.S. House and Senate races are in, and if you’re going by the numbers, the frontrunners are pretty clear—as pollster Dave Dittman recently told Flashlight, “People make a case that the most expensive campaigns don’t always win, but that’s the exception, and that’s because as a rule the more well funded campaigns simply win.”

The best statistic to look at right now, about a month prior to the primary election, is cash on hand. In the Republican primary race, where Congressman Don Young is trying to win his 20th term, but is being challenged by Sheldon Fisher, the Congressman is looking good. Fisher’s had to spend early to run ads to compensate for his lack of name recognition, and as of the end of June, he had $35,722 on hand, whereas Young is sitting on $441,077. Democratic challenger Harry Crawford, who has no primary challenger, has $32,471.

In the heated Republican primary between Senator Lisa Murkowski and Tea Party Express-supported Fairbanks attorney Joe Miller, the numbers are starker. Murkowski has $2,093,071 in the bank, while Miller reports $124,634. Of course, Miller has the California-based Tea Party Express backing his campaign financially and promising to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for Miller’s push against the incumbent. Still, “hundreds of thousands” doesn’t add up to two million-plus. Democrat Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka, didn’t have an FEC report available at the time of this writing. But he has a weak primary challenger—serial candidate and reliable oddball Frank Vondersaar, who reports $571 in cash on hand. (Vondersaar loaned his campaign $1,000, and reports two individual contributions, one for $24 and one for $25.)

Flashlight’s not prepared to call any races yet, but keeping in mind Dittman’s observation, the pole positions are becoming clearer.

bjk@anchoragepress.com