Krestia DeGeorge

Not long after word trickled out about Sarah Palin’s announced resignation as governor this morning, I was on the phone with Maia Nolan, a local blogger and observer of Alaska’s political scene.

“It kinda feels like August 29 again,” she said. Today’s news, of course, is very different from last fall’s announcement that Senator John McCain had tapped her as a candidate for the second-highest job in the nation.

But Maia is right; There’s a shared sense of incredulity—almost an intellectual vertigo—that slips out into the tone of the blog comments, facebook posts, tweets and phone calls that have been bouncing around the state today.

“Really!?”

And “why?”

And “what’s really going on here!?”

Whatever else Palin may have lost, she hasn’t lost the ability to puzzle.

Take for instance, Palin’s absurd explanation that because she isn’t running for reelection, she has no business running the state: [Hat tip to Alaska Dispatch for the rush transcript.]

“And so as I thought about this announcement that I wouldn't run for re-election and what it means for Alaska, I thought about how much fun some governors have as lame ducks... travel around the state, to the Lower 48 (maybe), overseas on international trade—as so many politicians do. And then I thought—that's what's wrong—many just accept that lame duck status, hit the road, draw the paycheck, and "milk it." I'm not putting Alaska through that—I promised efficiencies and effectiveness! ? That's not how I am wired. I am not wired to operate under the same old "politics as usual." I promised that four years ago—and I meant it.

It's not what is best for Alaska.

I am determined to take the right path for Alaska even though it is unconventional and not so comfortable.”

Palin’s been accused of conflating the business of governing and the business of politics before but the implication here—that if you’re not running for reelection, you’re unfit for public office—takes that notion to its illogical extreme.

Surely one of her advisors must’ve alerted her to the third way: using her lame duck period to get a lot of work done, without having to worry about the pressure politics can exert on the governing process. In other words, a lame duck governor who truly wished to serve her state has the option of attending committee meetings, not just junkets.

Which is why nobody is really buying that line.

Accordingly, there are a lot of theories about the real reason for her departure leaping from computer screen to computer screen.

Since there’s not much else to go on yet, let’s unpack a few of the theories floating around. There are as many of them as there are armchair analysts—and bear in mind that these are all rampant speculation at this point—but most of them fall into one of five categories:

1. Scandal!

The theories: This is by far the biggest and most titillating category. Depending on your inclination this could take a lot of forms. A few of the more popular ones: That the Trig Truthers finally have their smoking gun; that a personal scandal in the Palin family (think Mark Sanford or John Ensign) is about to break; that’s Palin’s become the target of her own FBI corruption investigation. Add to this category speculation that there’s more to the story of former Department of Health and Human Services Director Beverly Wooley’s departure. Wooley claims she was forced out by Palin, and her boss DHHS Commissioner Bill Hogan, for differences in what Hogan termed “personal values.”



The analysis: But politicians generally try to contain scandals until the last possible moment before they run for the hills. So if there really were a scandal, why wait until July 26 to hand over the reins of power to Lieutenant Governor Parnell?

The odds: 1 out of 10

2. She’s stepping down to run for president, duh.

The theory: Call this category the obvious one. There’s not really much variation here, just the endless speculation—which started before the corpse of McCain’s campaign was in the ground—that Palin, with her religious conservative base, would be a frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012. And Palin’s speech today (and that’s really what you have to call a press conference where the press can’t ask questions) seemed calibrated to appeal to a national audience as well as an Alaska one. Sure, Obama’s only been in office for six months, but why let that get in the way, when there’s fundraising to be done?



The analysis: The problem with this is as obvious as the theory itself. If you’re trying to convince voters to give you the top executive post in the nation, it probably doesn’t help to have left your last similar post halfway through your term. Still, Sarah might be audacious enough to try.

The odds: 1 out of 6



3. Sarah the kingmaker.



The theories: Okay, so maybe the presidency’s out of reach. But with the loyalties of a motivated and influential chunk of the Republican party, there’s no reason to fade from the picture. Palin could use SarahPAC and the goodwill she’s accumulated among social conservatives to raise gobs of money, and position herself to be a key decider about who will be the next GOP nominee, and what future the fractured, currently directionless party will take. One variation on this theme has her using her star power to revitalize the anti-abortion movement rather than the Republican Party (though trying for both might not be mutually exclusive).

The analysis: This isn’t a sure bet, but it makes more sense—at least for now—than the other two, and this particular path forward seems a clear one.

The odds: 1 out of 3

4. The better-paying gig.



The theories: Even before last November, there was buzz that Palin would make a perfect addition to Fox News: folksy, attractive, opinionated, entertaining—she even has a little background is broadcasting. And apparently BFFs with Greta Van Susteren. Or maybe she’s got a plum job lined up with an Exxon-TransCanada consortium? Okay, that last one might be a stretch, but the fact remains that Palin could probably convert her political notoriety into a high-paying job in lots of places. And even if those don’t materialize, rumors about the book contract she’s signed with Harpers consistently include astronomical figures. Who wouldn’t be tempted to just take some time off to regroup and figure out what’s next, while working with a ghostwriter on a lucrative book?

The analysis: Like the kingmaker theories, these have the virtue of having no real obvious problems. Plus the two sets of theories play well together. Sarah Palin the Fox News Analyst could also be the Sarah Palin the Star Fundraiser.

The odds: 1 out of 3

5. Sarah being Sarah.



The theory: Okay maybe cheating, but this one’s a slam-dunk. Whatever else is going on here, the way this announcement was handled—the last minute notification, the rambling, free-associating sentences, the implausible explanations—is vintage Palin. And maybe that’s all this boils down to. One last whacky goodbye from a politician who’s done a lot to inject some quirky into politics for the last ten months.

The analysis: Whatever else this is, this is definitely Sarah being Sarah.

The odds: A sure bet