Brand new poll numbers

By Ivan Moore
Anchorage Press
Published/Last Modified on Wednesday, October 22, 2008 1:01 PM AKDT


     

     


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BEGICH-STEVENS CLOSE, BERKOWITZ STILL OUT FRONT

Anchorage, October 21, 2008 - In a new statewide survey conducted October 17-19 for the Anchorage Press, Frontiersman, KTUU-TV (NBC) and KENI 650 AM, the U.S Senate race in Alaska is essentially tied, with just one point separating Mark Begich and Ted Stevens.  In the U.S. House race, Ethan Berkowitz leads by 8 points over Don Young.  This survey was conducted with 500 likely voter respondents, for a margin of error of +4.4%.

Tracking results for the U.S. Senate race are as follows, with the positive-negative ratings for the two candidates and the horserace, Begich first:



      

7/18-22

8/9-12

8/30-9/2

9/20-22

10/3-6

10/17-19
 Begich rating

66-23

66-23

57-28

60-28

60-29

55-31
 Stevens rating

55-38

46-46

50-40

48-44

51-41

49-41
 U.S. Senate race

51-43 (+8)

56-39 (+17)

49-46 (+3)

48-46 (+2)

49-45 (+4)

46-45 (+1)


 

Stevens' rating has been very stable over the last six weeks, despite both his ongoing trial in Washington DC and being a target of a barrage of negative media funded by the DSCC.  If anything, it is Begich's numbers which are deteriorating, with his positive reaching a low of 55% and his negative up over 30% for the first time.  Given the closeness of the race, it appears that Alaskans are giving Stevens the benefit of the doubt for now, and are reserving judgment until a verdict is read in his trial.

In the House race, we see the following tracking results, again with the ratings for the two candidates and the horserace, Berkowitz first:

      

7/18-22

8/9-12

8/30-9/2

9/20-22

10/3-6

10/17-19
 Berkowitz rating

50-18

45-23

48-23

49-26

53-24

53-25
 Young rating

41-52

41-53

31-58

39-52

40-51

44-47
 U.S. Congress race

52-37 (+15)

51-41 (+10)

54-37 (+17)

49-44 (+5)

51-42 (+9)

51-43 (+8)


  

Berkowitz's rating had improved nicely at the beginning of October, and it holds steady now.  Young's rating has improved almost to the point he needs it to.  At the end of August, his negative rating reached a high of 58%, a level at which it's not possible to win, but he's since pushed that down to 47%, his positive up to 44%.  The horserace has not moved much, however, showing an 8 point Berkowitz lead with two weeks to go.

In the Presidential race, we see the Palin-induced gap closing somewhat in this survey, to 11 points.  Alaska a strong, but weakening McCain.

      

8/30-9/2

10/3-6

10/17-19
 Obama-Biden

35

38

42
 McCain-Palin

54

55

53
 Undecided/Other

11

7

5


   

www.ivanmooreresearch.com


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Comments

Dianne in Alabama wrote on Oct 30, 2008 10:37 AM:

" I'm sure it is hard for McCain/Palin supporters to listen to the all the stuff on Palin. She is a likeable person. But please understand that evidence shows she is not as ethical as she claims; she had her chance to demonstrate an adequate grasp of national and international issues, and the legal role of a VP--she failed in a way that was embarrassing to a signficiant number of Republicans and to many Americans of all political persuasions. The worst part is she doesn't seem to recognize her limitations. She's fair game. "

nat wrote on Oct 29, 2008 9:16 AM:

" All these digs on Palin make me angry, don't you know that the media makes things sound worse that they are.Palin may be newer at this but she is a good woman. What about Obama he said The constitution was a mistake and it is only a list of what the Government Can't do.Exactly its to keep the Government out of our personal lives and let us live free. All the Ideas he is offering are starting to sound more like communism, and that did not work so well if I recall. How is anyone fooled by him? "

Buster Brown wrote on Oct 29, 2008 7:05 AM:

" How could anyone in their right mind vote for McCain/Palin. Surely even you AIP's in Alaska KNOW Palin is SOOOO NOT qualified .... she has NO intellectual curiosity! "

Neal wrote on Oct 28, 2008 7:42 AM:

" I live in Texas and love Alaska. I am a republican. My party always stood for honesty and morals - which it has abondoned long time back. Ted Stevens has done great things for Alaska but that does not give him right to be dishonest. How can a good republican cast vote for Ted once his character is known now? I do not care if democrats are honest or not. Others break law does not mean you should also. What are we teaching our kids? "

ron wrote on Oct 27, 2008 2:06 AM:

" How did you people in the great northwest get taken in by Palin. Her brain is flash frozen and freeze dried - the Saturday Night Live writers take a week off whenever she does an interview - the material she supplies requires no alterations. Now we find that even the pipeline she took credit for or "Instrumental" in negotiating is years away and may not happen at all. Anyone that has supported her politically must be embarrassed. You know the deep south was the butt end of most jokes "Bubba and company" but Palin changed that!! "

rebecca wrote on Oct 22, 2008 11:41 PM:

" Was there a sentence removed from this online story? I thought I saw something about Palin's ratings post-troopergate. "

Paul wrote on Oct 22, 2008 8:27 AM:

" Not sure I understand the point of the comment. The fact that Powell was (mis)used as he was to bolster the Administration's case for war makes it all the more understandable that he would be endorsing the anti-war candidate now. As for his character testimony for Ted Stevens, well, there's no accounting for taste. But the implication that any of these things means that he is "for sale" escapes me entirely. I see no benefit to Powell for any of these actions. "

rateyes wrote on Oct 22, 2008 6:36 AM:

" Stevens, Palin, etc. etc. Do people in Alaska EVER elect anyone who is honest? Seems like you have to lack integrity to have a shot at winning in AK. "

Peter Searle wrote on Oct 22, 2008 5:18 AM:

" With the latest news about Gov. Palin taking money from the kitty for travel expenses [her kids], in the amount of $21,012.00 for unauthorized travel -- that should hand the election to Obama/Biden on a silver platter. But then again, the people of Alaska don't really care about Gov. Palin, that she takes (robs) their money right away from them? "

steve conn wrote on Oct 21, 2008 3:10 PM:

" Colin Powell endorsed the war in Iraq for Bush, giving the UN speech with the WMD lie which justified the war. Colin Powell endorsed Ted Steven's character at his federal trial . Colin Powell endorsed Obama on Meet the Press. You'll never read these three things in the same place again. Vote Ralph Nader. Unlike Collin Powell, Ralph Nader is not and never was for sale. "

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